Boxing Day sales are expected to deliver a £3.6 billion boost to UK retailers this year, around £1 billion less than in 2024, as cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh on household spending.
The forecast comes from Barclays, which tracks nearly half of all credit and debit card transactions across the UK. The anticipated decline represents a blow to retailers during their all-important “golden quarter”, traditionally the most lucrative period of the year.
Seven in ten consumers say ongoing price pressures will influence how much they spend during the sales, with fewer shoppers planning to take part overall. The proportion of people intending to shop on Boxing Day has slipped to 26 per cent, down from 28 per cent last year.
However, those who do head out are expected to spend more individually. The average Boxing Day shopper plans to spend £253, up from £236 a year ago, suggesting that fewer but more determined bargain-hunters will be driving sales.
Nearly half of shoppers say they will use the discounts to stock up on familiar products at lower prices, while one in four intend to focus solely on essentials. Clothing remains the most sought-after category, followed by food and drink, and beauty products, with many shoppers prioritising premium brands at reduced prices.
The weaker outlook follows a disappointing run-up to Christmas for the retail sector. Sales fell by 0.2 per cent in November and remain around 3 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, as consumers continue to prioritise saving after several years of elevated inflation and interest rates.
Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays, said shoppers had shown “just how cost-conscious they are throughout 2025”, a trend she expects to continue on Boxing Day. She added that artificial intelligence is increasingly shaping how consumers approach sales events, helping them compare prices, generate gift ideas and set personalised alerts.
Two in five shoppers say they will use AI tools to hunt for the best deals this Boxing Day, although half of those surveyed worry the technology could encourage overspending. Despite the rise of digital tools, most consumers still plan to do at least some of their shopping in-store, with many citing the experience as part of the festive tradition.
For a significant minority, however, Boxing Day is less about bargains and more about downtime. Almost a quarter of people say the day should be spent at home with family rather than on the high street.
“Boxing Day remains a pivotal moment for retailers, fuelled by Christmas nostalgia,” Johnson said. “But it has evolved to reflect modern consumer demands, where value, convenience and technology increasingly shape how people shop.”
Read more:
Boxing Day sales set to fall by £1bn as cost-of-living pressures bite
