The cost of supporting children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) is set to continue rising for much of the decade, despite a sweeping overhaul of the system unveiled in the government’s long-awaited schools white paper.
Ministers have confirmed that education, health and care plans (EHCPs), the legally binding documents that guarantee tailored support, will gradually be scaled back for many pupils as a new system of specialist provision is introduced. However, while the reforms are phased in, the number of EHCPs is expected to keep climbing.
EHCP numbers have doubled over the past ten years, pushing annual SEND spending to around £12bn. Government forecasts suggest that by 2029–30 more than 8 per cent of children could hold an EHCP before numbers begin to decline. After that point, the total is projected to fall by around 270,000, returning to roughly today’s level of 640,000. Officials expect spending to stabilise at current levels by 2035, though they have cautioned that longer-term projections remain uncertain.
Bridget Phillipson said the reforms are designed to reduce the adversarial nature of the current system, which often sees families locked in lengthy disputes with local authorities. While the government initially appeared to signal that EHCPs might be scrapped entirely, ministers have now clarified that families will still be able to request them, particularly for children with the most complex needs. However, mediation will replace tribunal proceedings in most cases where support levels are contested.
Under the new framework, schools will be legally required to publish inclusion strategies setting out how they will support SEND pupils and will be assessed on their performance by Ofsted. By the end of the decade, children with additional needs are expected to receive individual support plans, described as a digital “passport”, intended to reduce reliance on formal EHCP applications.
The revised model will introduce three layers of additional support on top of a universal offer available to all SEND pupils. Most children will remain in mainstream schools, receiving either targeted classroom support or additional professional input such as speech and language therapy. Only those with the most complex needs will be directed towards specialist placements, with EHCPs retained primarily for this group.
The reforms will cost £4bn overall, including £1.6bn allocated to help mainstream schools strengthen provision. Yet the Department for Education has acknowledged that EHCP numbers may not fall below their current level and that rising demand could continue to place strain on local authority budgets.
Alongside changes to SEND provision, the white paper proposes tighter oversight of private specialist schools, including the possibility of capping fees and restricting expansion where deemed unnecessary. Ministers have criticised what they describe as excessive charges and have raised concerns about private equity involvement in the sector.
The paper also reiterates the government’s ambition for all schools to join or form multi-academy trusts, while warning against excessive executive pay and calling for clearer expectations between families and schools.
A three-month public consultation on the proposals is now under way. While ministers argue the overhaul will ease pressure on families and improve early intervention, critics warn that without deeper structural reform to assessment thresholds and accountability, rising demand may continue to drive costs higher before any savings materialise.
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SEND overhaul unlikely to curb rising costs before 2030, government concedes
